Why African women and girls are still manual porters

The Washington Post this morning carries a story on a DC couple who went on safari in Tanzania and then decided to start an NGO to donate bicycles to give relief to the vast number of female manual porters they encountered.  Whether their project fits into the well-populated category of poorly informed good intentions I leave to the readers to judge (although the NGO name is the cringe-inducing Pets Providing Pedals, since one of the couple is a professional dog groomer). Every visitor to Africa is struck by the huge amount of human porterage going on, usually by women and girls. The stereotypical image of an African girl walking long distances with a large load balanced on her head is not just a stereotype.  But the Pets Providing Pedals project raises a different question -- why aren't bicycles already used a lot more already? Or carts drawn by draft animals? Or cars or trucks?

A standard economist's answer could suffice, although it hardly lessons the tragedy of the women condemned for life to porterage. You substitute capital (trucks, bicycles, carts) for labor (head porterage) when labor is scarce. You substitute labor for capital when capital is scarce and unskilled labor is abundant.  Guess which one applies to most African countries.

A sustainable alternative to women being used as draft animals probably requires something that vastly increases the demand for unskilled labor and makes it more expensive ("sweatshops" look positively attractive by comparison). Of course, there are also these little tiny issues about women's rights and gender equality -- but that too could respond to economic forces that gives women many more viable alternatives.

African Export Success: Shooting Fowl while riding an Antelope

Contrary to the image of African countries as static mono-exporters, it is unpredictable from one period to the next which will be the top exports in each country. Consider this picture of Tanzania’s top exports in 1998 and 2007.

This is pattern of rapidly changing success is the norm across African countries. If you take the top 100 exports in each country in 1998 (or the first year in which data is available), its correlation with the rank of those same exports in 2008 is only .29.

Moreover, almost none of the changing success is explained by global commodity prices. In fact, there is little difference in the dynamic changeability of African commodity export performance and that of the continent’s non-commodity export performance. Nor is there any difference between how much global prices explain commodity exports (which is hardly at all) compared to non-commodity exports.

The usual stereotype of African exports as just given by a natural commodity or mineral endowment, with fluctuations mainly explained by global commodity prices, is just ... wrong.

These findings were featured in a paper by Ariell Reshef  (UVa) and myself in the National Bureau of Economic Research conference on African  Development Success July 18-20 in Accra.

What does it all mean? Actually, the patterns in Africa were similar to those in non-African countries. In all cases, succeeding in exports requires aiming at a moving target. Who will do better under these conditions, state industrial policy planners or decentralized entrepreneurs with specialized knowledge of what is working and what is not in each sector?