Orbital Crowding: Interoperability or Inevitable Collision?

This post is part of my Mind the Gap series, which examines critical disconnects between strategic ambitions and the tools we are giving ourselves to achieve them.

Starlink, Kuiper, Thousand Sails, and other mega-constellations are filling Earth’s lower orbit fast. Today, some are flying within 5 km of one another—soon it’ll be even closer. And yet, we still lack a shared global system for coordinating satellite maneuvers.

That’s why Space Situational Awareness —the ability to track, predict, and avoid collisions—is critical. But interoperability among nations has not been achieved, and governance is falling behind.

According to RAND, the PLA sees Starlink as a military tool and is building its own rival constellations. Tensions are rising—but forums to address them are underfunded.

COPUOS, the only multilateral venue where U.S. and China still talk space norms, had to cut its latest session short due to budget shortfalls. A voluntary fund is being set up—yet China has a track record of using such contributions to gain influence. U.S. agency cuts now risk limiting even basic participation.

Multilateralism may be slow—but without it, space will become faster to crisis.