Reply to Sutton et al.: Relationship Between Temperature and Conflict is Robust

June 2010
Shanker Satyanath, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, John Dykema, and David Lobell
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 25.

Reply to Sutton et al.: Relationship Between Temperature and Conflict is Robust
In a recent paper, we documented strong historical linkages between temperature and civil conflict in Africa. Sutton et al. raise two concerns with our findings: that the relationship between temperature and war is based on common trends and is therefore spurious, and that our model appears overly sensitive to small specification changes. Both concerns reflect a basic misunderstanding of the analysis.